Hey guys it’s Nial here from learn to trade the market and welcome to another trade setups video.
In todays video i’m going to be talking about a huge gold trade setup we recently discussed in the members weekly trade setups newsletter and i’m going to talking about a potential trade setup on gold that I see setting up over the next few weeks.
So firstly, lets have a look at the zoomed out daily gold chart.. we can see the market found strong resistance at the 1295-1300 resistance region on several occasions over the past 6 months
What’s interesting to note is that on the past 3 tests of this 1295 resistance, the price quickly reversed lower, but on this most recent move up to test that resistance, prices didn’t reverse lower, instead price started to consolidate right under that resistance.
If we zoom in closer on the daily chart, we can see a pin bar reversal sell signal formed exactly at that resistance, but again, there was no follow through lower, we just went sideways.
We can see these 4 daily price bars where a classic coiling inside bar structure (this is where you see multiple daily price bars that form within the range of the previous bar). Now typically when we see so many inside bars compressing like this, it’s a warning sign that the market is about to make a major break in one direction, but remember at this point we don’t what direction that is.
On this 4th price bar, you can see prices did initially break out to the downside and for some this would have been a short signal. However, as you can see, the shorts had it wrong and prices quickly reversed off the lows and formed a large bullish pin bar reversal with a long tail.
This is a pattern I call the fakey setup, because prices make a false break in one direction and quickly start moving in the opposite direction, so the first move was ‘fake out’ designed to trap most fo the market on the wrong side. It’s a very powerful price action pattern that shows the psychology that’s taking place between traders in the market, where you have the majority of traders betting prices are going to move one way, and they are about to get squeezed out of their positions and will be forced to exit or will stop out as prices start moving the other way. This pattern leads to huge moves, especially around major levels.
Ok, for anybody short, the fakey pattern was a clear signal to get out of shorts and reverse to longs and for those traders not in a trade, this was a clear signal to take a long position. At the close of this bullish pin bar, we took an aggressive entry at the market price… and as you can see in the following few days prices rallied strongly up through the resistance at 1300 and beyond.. a really nice trade for those who got on board.
Personally, I like to trade fakeys where the false break bar is a really clear pin bar (like the one we have in this example), but there are 4 different types of fakeys and I expand in more detail about this in my trading courses.
Ok, so if you missed that trade, the question now is, where is gold headed and how can we trade it from here ?
Well given that price has shown it’s hand and started trending strongly above that previous resistance at 1295-1300, we could assume that level is going to act as strong support, in fact after the first break out prices actually re tested that level here and quickly pushed higher.
So from here, the best potential trades will likely be to buy gold if prices pull back towards that 1295-1300 major level … we would either wait for a price action buy signal, or we could just blindly jump in.
If we zoom out on the daily chart again, we can see the technical picture for gold looks very bullish now that we are above that 1300 resistance, and until prices collapse back below that support, we can assume prices are contained higher and will continue trending higher. Obviously If prices fail, that’s potentially a good sign to close any longs and re assess the chart.
The next major level is around these 1370-1400 levels, and that would be my first upside target, but it’s possible we could move even higher than that longer term. So for now, i’m buying gold on any price dips down towards that support and i’ll be setting profit targets up around 1370-1400 area.
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I’ll see you in the next video, until then safe trading.