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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Dot blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – October 15th to 19th, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily timeframes unless marked otherwise.
GBPUSD – Trading range developing, with focus on 1.3295 and 1.2920.
Summary: Overhead key resistance levels at 1.3200 and 1.3295 and support at 1.2820 and 1.3020.
A bullish pin bar reversal forms at 1.3020 support earlier last week which sent prices higher into overhead resistance. The 1.2920-1.3020 support area now becomes an ‘event area’ and thus we expect the market to see support on a retest of that price area. Price also appears contained under the significant resistance level at 1.3295 and a trading range appears to be developing.
1 – Consider selling on any strength whilst price remains under 1.3295 or wait for a price action sell signal to confirm an entry around that level.
2 – Consider waiting for a price action buy signal around 1.2920 to 1.3020 support range.
GBPJPY – Box pattern break out imminent.
Summary: Trend remains mildly bullish. Price is consolidating right at 149.15 resistance area within a box pattern that has developed over the past few weeks.
The box consolidation range shows resistance at 149.15 and support at 146.95. From here, price is likely to break out either way (up or down), in the next few sessions. Keep an eye on the direction of the break out and watch for price action signals on 4 hour and daily chart for more clues as to the new direction of this market.
Trade Idea: Waiting for a price action pattern to confirm an entry. Expect a break out of the box, and go with that move if a price action signal aligns.
CRUDE OIL (WTI Futures) – Looking for buy signals at major support above $70.30.
Summary: Price has broken out strongly last week, closing above the $71.30 major resistance level. Price is still firmly contained above the major support at $70.30 to $71.30 area.
Oil sold off last week back down into the $70.30-$71.30 support area that we continued to discuss as significant. For now, prices have bounced perfectly at support, however the market needs to hold firmly at the $70.30 level on a daily close in order for the bulls to maintain control. An inside bar pattern formed on Friday so keep an eye out for a bullish fakey pattern. We still prefer waiting for a price action buy signal in this $70.30-$71.30 price vicinity.
Trade Ideas: Consider waiting for a price action buy signal around the $70.30 to $71.30 support area, targeting a move back to $74.93.
S&P 500 (S&P 500 Futures) USA – Playing both sides of the market as volatility picks up.
Summary: Neutral bias after last weeks huge correction. Support levels at 2690 and resistance at 2790 and 2860-70 area.
Price has capitulated lower last week, failing at both 2860 and 2790 technical levels. The next support is not until 2690 area. From here it’s likely the market will remain volatile so we can play both sides of the market. An inside bar formed on Friday, however we won’t be committing to a trade until we see a price action signal, either from support at 2690 support or at 2860 resistance.
1 – Consider waiting for a buy signal around 2690.
2 – Consider waiting for a sell signal around 2860.
We suggest traders avoid holding long positions (buys) over the weekend.
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